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Which Nutrition Policy? A Simulation-Based Analysis of Policy Options for Reducing Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in the Control of Type 2 Diabetes in Iran
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S Pourmoradian *   , N Kalantari , H Eini-Zinab , A Milani-Bonab , A Haghighian-Roudsari , E Faramarzi |
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Abstract: (4 Views) |
Background and Objectives: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 71% of all global deaths and represent one of the most pressing challenges facing health systems worldwide. The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) constitutes a modifiable dietary risk factor responsible for more than 184,000 deaths annually across the globe. In Iran, 1,124 deaths per year are attributable to SSB consumption, and the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among the adult population has reached 8.9%. The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of common policy interventions for controlling SSB consumption and to estimate preventable mortality through a simulation-based approach.
Methods: Employing a policy modeling and simulation framework, this study compared and assessed the effectiveness of four principal interventions: replacement of SSBs with safe drinking water, mandatory 30% sugar reduction in beverage products, a 10% excise tax on SSBs, and a combined tax-and-drinking-water-subsidy policy. Intervention priorities were determined through a structured expert elicitation process.
Results: Simulation findings indicated that the SSB-to-safe-water substitution policy was the most effective intervention, preventing 2,015 deaths over the 20-year projection period—26% more than the 10% excise tax alone (1,599 deaths prevented) and 12% more than the product reformulation policy in isolation (1,789 deaths prevented). The combined tax-and-reformulation strategy was associated with 1,872 preventable deaths. Expert prioritization, however, ranked mandatory product reformulation as the foremost policy option.
Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that a strategically integrated combination of environmental, industrial, and fiscal interventions—particularly the substitution of SSBs with safe drinking water in schools and public settings—holds the greatest potential for reducing preventable mortality in Iran. Nonetheless, final policy decisions should be preceded by a comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis conducted in collaboration with the country's economic and budgetary authorities.
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| Keywords: Sugar-sweetened beverages, Type 2 diabetes, Non-communicable diseases, Policy interventions, Simulation modeling, Iran |
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Full-Text [PDF 1034 kb]
(13 Downloads)
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Article type: Brief Policy |
Subject:
nutrition
Received: 2026/05/31 | Accepted: 2026/01/30 | Published: 2026/06/1
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